Wedoany.com Report-Feb 16, On January 6, 2025, the People’s Republic of China reaffirmed its intention to construct the world’s biggest dam on the Brahmaputra River. China issued an official statement. The first proposal for this dam was revealed four years ago by the government of the People’s Republic of China when the project was initially introduced. This project was included in the 14th Five-Year Plan and was scheduled to commence from 2020 onwards, however it was subsequently suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the project has had many interruptions owing to economic issues in China and apprehensions from neighboring nations, including India and Bangladesh. Both nations are apprehensive over the project, since it is situated in the environmentally sensitive Himalayan area, which lies along tectonic plate boundaries and is susceptible to regular earthquakes. Despite the project being launched four years ago, very few specifics have been disclosed since then, except for the name of the contracting organization, the Power Construction Corporation of China. Though China has maintained its stance on this project and has declared that the project would not adversely affect the interests of its neighboring nations. However, professional opinions have diverged considerably from those of the PRC government.
Ecological Consequences
Despite the PRC government’s assurances to downstream nations that the dam’s construction would not yield adverse effects, China’s historical record with such projects has been less than favorable. The Three Gorges Dam, China’s last hydroelectric facility, is a significant component of the development surge in western China. However, this dam necessitated the relocation of a million residents, along with the evacuation of other surrounding communities. Consequently, scientists have posited that China’s new project would have profound repercussions, since the building of this dam may induce substantial alterations in the area that may not be conducive to the terrain and will considerably affect several aquatic species. The dam might potentially have an influence on the Yangtze River’s natural path, commonly known as the Brahmaputra River.
The Megadam’s Reality and Its Implications for India
The India-China water conflict has persisted for decades. The rivers of the Himalayas constitute a significant resource for both nations, since they are essential for their burgeoning populations and accelerated economic development. The contention about the Yarlung Tsangpo, also referred to as the Brahmaputra River is considered to be the most vital water resource for both nations and one of the few resources they share. Despite the tremendous improvement in ties between the two nations after the 2020 LAC conflict. India has been in a troubling predicament ever since China announced the construction of the megadam, since India has always accused China of attempting to influence the Brahmaputra River by developing different hydroelectric projects in the vicinity. Prime Minister Narendra Modi referenced, in 2013, as well as China’s efforts to diminish the river’s flow. Over the last decade, the Indian government has implemented numerous measures to address the situation in Arunachal Pradesh, as India is concerned that China, a territorially ambitious nation, has consistently sought to extend its presence in the region. India fears that if another conflict, similar to the LAC, occurs in Arunachal Pradesh. China, being the upper-riparian state, will possess the authority to regulate the water flow. India is increasingly concerned that China’s megadam may transform expert conjecture over “water wars” between India and China into a tangible conflict. The Indian government’s speculation is plausible, as the PRC government, upon announcing the budget for the dam’s construction, also gave rise to a new militant group in Arunachal Pradesh, known as the United Tani Army (UTA), whose primary aim is to smoothen the mega dam’s development in the Himalayan state. China issued a statement asserting that India need not be concerned; however, the establishment of this organization unequivocally reveals Beijing’s intentions to obstruct India’s objective of generating 57,000 megawatts of clean energy from various hydropower projects in their region. Through the use of this dam, China will ultimately leverage control over the transboundary river to assert dominance over the contested region. China will have the capability to deprive India of water during the dry season and will also possess the power to induce floods in the monsoon area by discharging substantial quantities of water. China’s newest projects, notably the Three Gorges Dam, have shown the magnitude of the nation’s hydroelectric aspirations, since this initiative will assist China in sustaining its supremacy in the renewable energy industry.
Monopoly in Renewable Energy
Prior to China’s emergence as a dominating force in the renewable energy industry, it was one of the top emitters of CO2 pollutants. Nonetheless, China successfully altered the situation via the extensive programs enacted by the PRC in recent years. Since China’s 11th Five-Year Plan, the PRC has engaged in research and development of renewable energy technologies; nevertheless, it was the 12th Five-Year Plan that established comprehensive objectives for low carbon development. China implemented several initiatives, including the National Development and Reform Commission’s National Action Plan on Climate Change, initiated in 2007. The State Council initiated the Renewable Energy Law in 2006 which has been in effect since 2015. In the last two decades, China has excelled in producing power from renewable sources. China produces 13% of its energy from wind sources and dominates hydropower, providing more than 79.3% to the renewable energy sector. In recent years, China has constructed over 900 dams nationwide to provide renewable energy and sustain its dominance in the hydropower business. It is projected that the “megadam” will produce over 300 billion kWh of clean and renewable energy, therefore reinforcing Chinese dominance in this industry.
Countermeasures used by the Indian government
Despite China’s minimal contribution to the Brahmaputra’s overall flow, any efforts by the PRC to manipulate the river’s flow to their advantage are unlikely to succeed, thereby undermining the narrative of water warfare that Beijing might attempt to employ against India. Despite the significant improvement in relations between the two countries, the period from 2020 to 2023 witnessed a nadir in their relations. China’s response to India’s concerns during this time exacerbated tensions and intensified apprehensions in Delhi. Although ties between the two nations have improved, China’s ongoing withholding of information has exacerbated suspicion against it.
In recent weeks, India has proposed the construction of the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) on the Siang River. India intends to achieve an installed capacity of 11,000 megawatts with this project. This reservoir will have the capacity to store 9 billion cubic meters of water and will assist the Indian government in regulating water flow to maintain a consistent supply. This hydroelectric project will serve as a safeguard in the event that China discharges surplus water from its dams. The Indian government intends to implement SUMP to mitigate floods in the downstream regions of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and to assist the populace of Bangladesh. Indian government has deployed military in the area to inform the local populace about the danger posed by Beijing if India does not construct a SUMP to safeguard its waterways. The Indian government’s concern about China’s ambitions. Numerous military analysts and officials have characterized this action by China as a “water bomb” directed against India.
Conclusion
The new project by China is a pivotal advancement in its renewable energy initiatives, highlighting its supremacy in hydropower. The ecological fragility of the Himalayan area, together with the strategic vulnerabilities it creates for downstream nations such as India, presents significant problems. China and refutes negative consequences. India’s proactive strategies to mitigate possible dangers demonstrate its increasing focus on protecting its territorial and water security. This circumstances highlights the fragile equilibrium between developmental aspirations and the urgent need for collaborative regional diplomacy to tackle common ecological and geopolitical issues.
