Wedoany.com Report-Apr. 7, Despite heavy rainfall in March, Morocco’s 2025 wheat crop is projected to fall short of the 10-year average, as outlined in a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) report. The forecast attributes this to a combination of hot, dry weather early in the growing season and a smaller planted area, though production is expected to slightly exceed the drought-impacted levels of 2024.
The report highlights that crops planted early in the season struggled due to prolonged dry spells from December to February. It states: “Crops planted earlier in the season appear considerably weaker and are expected to yield well below average due to prolonged dry conditions.” In contrast, later-sown crops have benefited from improved soil moisture after the significant March rains, showing more favorable development.
Released on March 31, the USDA FAS estimates Morocco’s 2025/26 wheat production at 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) of common wheat, 1.1 MMT of durum wheat, and 700,000 metric tons (MT) of barley. These volumes, while marginally higher than the 2024/25 season, still lag behind the decade-long average. Field assessments conducted in March 2025 revealed below-average vegetation growth, especially in southern regions like Marrakesh–Tensift–El Haouz and Souss-Massa.
To satisfy domestic needs and sustain reserves, Morocco is anticipated to import 7.3 MMT of wheat and 0.9 MMT of barley in the 2025/26 marketing year. Historically dependent on France for wheat imports, the country diversified its sources in 2024/25, turning to Germany, Canada, Russia, Romania, and Poland. Notably, imports from Russia surged to 960,137 MT between June 1 and December 30, 2024, marking a 278% rise from the same period in 2023.
The report also notes the cancellation of Eid Al-Adha festivities due to successive drought years, a move expected to influence barley imports and feed use. Barley, mainly utilized for animal feed, is projected to see a sharp decline in consumption for 2025/26, driven by a significant drop in livestock numbers. Feed consumption is expected to decrease by approximately 42% compared to the prior year, with total barley use forecasted at 1.6 MMT. Industrial barley demand, however, is likely to remain consistent.
Morocco’s agricultural outlook reflects the challenges of variable weather and reduced cultivation areas, balanced by efforts to adapt through increased imports and diversified suppliers. The USDA’s analysis underscores the ongoing impact of environmental conditions on the nation’s grain production and consumption patterns.
