Wedoany.com Report-Feb 21, Nutrien is anticipating that corn plantings will range between 91-93 million acres with the projected increase combined with a shortened fall application season in 2024, supporting their outlook for strong North American fertilizer demand in the first half of this year.
The fertilizer producer said in an earnings release that it feels interest in soybean sowings will be strong as well with their projections for upcoming plantings to range from 84 million acres up to 86 million acres this spring.
It noted that global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low, and demand remains strong, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity prices in 2025.
Not only is the outlook favourable in the US but also in Brazil as Nutrien said generally favorable soil moisture and stronger crop prices are expected to lead to an increase in safrinha corn acreage by approximately 5%.
The company said strong grain and oilseed export demand is supporting grower economics.
Looking at potash, Nutrien said global shipments rebounded to approximately 72.5 million tonnes in 2024. They were driven by improved supply and supportive application economics that contributed to increased demand in key markets such as China, Brazil and southeast Asia.
The producer is forecasting global potash shipments between 71 million tonnes and 75 million tonnes in 2025.
It noted that the high end of the range captures the potential for stronger underlying global consumption and the lower end captures the potential for reduced supply availability.
Nutrien said it anticipates possible supply tightness with limited global capacity additions in 2025 and reported operational challenges and maintenance work in key producing regions.
For global urea and UAN their prices have increased in Q1 of 2025 and are being driven by strengthening demand in key import markets and restricted supply, including continued Chinese urea export restrictions.
The producer said global ammonia prices have recently trended lower due to seasonal demand weakness and the anticipation of incremental supply in the US and export capacity from Russia.
It does expect North American natural gas prices to remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia, with Henry Hub natural gas prices projected to average between $3.25-3.50/MMBtu for the year.
Looking at the US nitrogen supply and demand balance the company expects it to be tight ahead of the spring applications, as nitrogen fertilizer net imports in the first half of the 2024-2025 fertilizer year were down approximately 60% compared to the five-year average.
Overall nitrogen demand for the spring season is expected to be strong due to the limited fall ammonia application and the potential uptick in corn acreage.
For phosphates Nutrien said the markets remain firm, particularly in North America where inventories were estimated to be historically low entering 2025.
It is anticipating that Chinese phosphate exports will see levels like 2024, with total exports ranging between 6 and 7 million tonnes.
Currently the situation in India with their tight supply should help push demand higher ahead of their key planting season.
“The outlook for our business in 2025 is supported by expectations for strong crop input demand and firming potash fundamentals,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien president and CEO.
